What does the future hold for Marine Le Pen and the RN? Is Jordan Bardella capable of replacing her?

    Luc Rouban: Barring the uncertain scenario of a favourable ruling on appeal before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen is likely to hand over her position as RN candidate to Bardella. But is Bardella capable of replacing her? That’s the question.

    Internally, he hasn’t really managed to establish himself within the party, particularly in terms of renewing the leadership and structuring the movement. As soon as Marine Le Pen was absent – which was the case after the death of her father (editor’s note: Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of the National Front) – the party seemed to collapse.

    What’s more, Bardella is Marine Le Pen’s heir apparent. The party’s “normalisation” could involve a form of “de-lepenalisation”. The Le Pen family has totally structured the party, which is very vertical, very organised around itself and its immediate entourage. This oligarchic model and this verticality are obviously going to be called into question. Will Bardella suffer as a result? Other RN leaders, such as Sébastien Chenu or Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who have established themselves in the media, may try to overtake him in the presidential race. However, this would require a break with Marine Le Pen in a party where dissidents are quickly excluded. The likelihood of such a challenge therefore remains low.

    What about Marion Maréchal? Could she take over?

    Luc Rouban: I don’t believe so because Maréchal (editor’s note: Marine Le Pen’s niece, who was elected to the European Parliament in 2024 on the ticket of the far-right Reconquest party, to which she no longer belongs) plays the Trump card and makes the RN feel uncomfortable. The RN electorate is too attached to France’s sovereignty, and has evolved toward a form of labour rights that is far removed from hard-line liberalism. The Reconquest electorate is more middle-class, older, better educated and wealthier than that of the RN.

    Will the RN benefit from this verdict or lose voters?

    Luc Rouban: It is possible that some abstentionist voters whose backgrounds are similar to those of RN voters will express their dissatisfaction with Marine Le Pen’s conviction by choosing to vote for the future candidate of the RN.

    But among the right-wing, upper middle classes who voted RN in the 2024 legislative elections, the vote could shift back to Les Républicains (editor’s note: the historic French right-wing party).

    Furthermore, for whoever becomes the future candidate of the RN, there will be a problem of support. To win a presidential election, you need to have support in the business world. But dragging around a party whose main leaders have been convicted of criminal offences is not a good look. Fundamentally, the RN was already isolated from the social elites. It could be even more so tomorrow.

    How might public opinion react to this major event, which deprives millions of voters of their candidate? Should we expect large-scale responses, possibly violent ones?

    Luc Rouban: As far as society in general is concerned, there may be hostile reactions for a while, isolated incidents, but I don’t think there will be mass movements like in the 1930s. The lack of enthusiasm for political life is obvious: who is going to take physical risks and engage in violent action to defend a political party and its representative? Not many people, I think.