Americal Thinker

By J. Robert Smith

    Voters now blame Democrats slightly more than Republicans for the shutdown -- if you believe the polling. An historic 43-day closure resulted in as much as a $14 billion hit to the economy. All sorts of disruptions and inconveniences happened. Democrats voted against funding Uncle Sam 15 times during the “Schumer Shutdown,” though corporate media did their level best to cover for them, as usual.

    Democrats bet on pain leading to gain. The shutdown was a governance and, finally, a perceptions victory for President Trump -- who furnished Republicans the backbone. Another shutdown looms in January. ObamaCare, a miserable failure, needs to be scrapped. Trump wants it replaced with a program centered on consumer empowerment. We’ll see if congressional Republicans are up to the challenge.

    Though Democrats came up empty legislatively, they did make gains in the off-year elections. The shutdown helped gin up their base. Blue states voted blue, which isn’t a surprise, but the magnitude of those victories was unexpected -- save for New York City, where Zohran Mamdani won with a plurality. The shutdown helped Democrats in Northern Virginia’s D.C. suburbs. MAGA voters stayed home. Independents in New Jersey swung Democrat -- partly due to the shutdown, but mostly due to economic frustrations. Voters in blue states are overtaxed and overregulated, which dampen state economies, yet it must be Trump’s fault.

    Contrary to Democrat and corporate media propaganda, the economy has improved since Trump took office. Gas prices are down. So is the price of eggs. But consumers say grocery store prices are still too high. Wage growth among blue-collar workers is the best in about 60 years. Energy production is climbing. You can’t overestimate its importance. Abundant, cheaper energy will have huge impacts on costs economy-wide. The economy may be slowing some, but a recession isn’t predicted.

    Voters are fickle. The president is the victim of his early successes. They’ve fueled expectations. Voters now want more results faster. While more good economic news is in the offing -- rollout of the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill’s” tax provisions next spring should be a real boost -- will there be enough good news occurring fast enough to favorably influence the midterm elections  That’s the million-dollar question.

    By next November, voters won’t recall shutdowns if they believe their financial situations are improving. Democrats plan to throw whatever roadblocks they can to stymie economic progress. They’ll work overtime to manipulate voter perceptions. Pain is their ally. For the GOP, the midterms are about turning out the party’s base. Enough independents need to be persuaded to swing back to the GOP.

    Don’t count on redistricting as a difference maker for Republicans. The redistricting war is producing mixed results. The DoJ just joined a federal lawsuit against California to stop voter-approved redistricting championed by Gavin Newsom. The grounds are that the Newsom plan is race-based. Will the lawsuit stall redistricting until after next year’s contests  Hard to say.

    But leaning on court rulings and favorable red state redistricting is lazy. This can’t be stressed enough: Republicans need well-funded and smartly executed voter turnout and mail-in ballot campaigns in swing states and in competitive House districts elsewhere. Here’s a dirty little secret: D.C. Republican consultants tend to push conventional paid media over grassroots organization. Why  Fatter fees. Trump’s ground game and social media outreach last year were difference makers. The president needs to insist those are where Republicans put their money in 2026.

    Most voters don’t care if Trump wins a Nobel Peace Prize. The president will be remembered for bringing back common sense to governance, securing the borders, cutting crime, and, no less, making life better for working and middle-class Americans. Grappling with Iran, Gaza, Ukraine, and Venezuela are necessary parts of Trump’s job. Voters give him a thumbs up, but they’ll cast votes on jobs, paychecks, and family budgets. Short of war -- or rumors thereof -- bread and butter issues are top shelf.

    It isn’t all sunshine and roses for Democrats. Schumer’s failure to secure Obamacare subsidies exposed fissures in his party. Pushing another shutdown in January -- when the latest Continuing Resolution (CR) expires -- depends on external politics and internal Democrat Party dynamics. The Left is battling with establishment Democrats for control. It may not be much of a struggle. The energy and resolve are with a rising generation of leftists. Nonetheless, behind the scenes, there’s plenty of friction.

    Bernie Sanders -- a corrupted but still influential socialist icon -- groused publicly about Democrats coming up empty-handed on subsidies. Yet, behind the scenes, Sanders and his allies surely regard the shutdown defeat as advantageous.

    Chuck Schumer’s failure is being leveraged to oust him as Senate Democrat leader after the midterms. Schumer emerged from the shutdown looking like an exhausted old man who’s just a private jet flight away from retirement in Miami Beach. Rumor is that Schumer is weighing calling it quits when his term expires. Democrat sentiment is leaning against Schumer returning.

    There are bigger lessons to draw politically as the year winds down. Though the Democrats and their allies were knocked back on their heels with Trump’s election, they’ve begun finding their footing. “Affordability” is resonating with their base and independents. That matters in swing state elections.

    Democrat voters are marching Left in large part due to generational change. Foreign-born voters are impacting -- as they did in New York City and Seattle (Mamdani and Katie Wilson). Progressive whites -- white women leading -- are moving further Left, if that’s possible.

    Don’t assume that going “red” undercuts election chances. Democrats appreciate no less that the game is wresting control of the U.S. House. Republicans enjoy only a six-seat margin (there are three vacancies). All it only takes is flipping a handful of seats to grab control. Republicans assume at their peril that voters will figure it out. Voters need to be engaged starting early next year through the elections.

    The president more than gets that midterms success means holding the House. The Senate is less at risk. Yes, it’s a cliché, but without the House, the president will be condemned to fending off investigations and, perhaps, an unprecedented third impeachment. Basically, a redo of the final two years of his first term.

    It pays for Republicans to appreciate that voters aren’t interested in what’s been done for them lately. They want to know what’s being done for them now. Senate Republicans ending the filibuster would blow open a road to move Trump’s legislative agenda. Passing Trump’s agenda accomplishes two aims: it leads the nation further out of reach of the left-trending Democrat Party and gives the GOP base reasons to cast ballots. But there are a dozen or so Senate Republicans who oppose busting the filibuster. They’re insisting on playing by the old rules. But the old rules -- the old politics -- are dead.

    President Trump’s election didn’t end the nation’s cold civil war. It’s ongoing, fluctuating between warm and hot phases. It’ll heat up plenty in 2026. Midterm elections historically cut against the party in power. Republicans must buck history this time. Trump needs a couple of more years to steer the county back to a common sense course. Then Vance -- or whoever else is committed to MAGA -- needs to succeed Trump in 2028. No backtracking. Those are tall orders, but it takes all that and more to build a durable governing majority -- one that safeguards liberty and promotes prosperity.

J. Robert Smith can be found at X. His handle is @JRobertSmith1. At Gab, @JRobertSmith. He blogs occasionally at Flyover