National Interest

by Joseph A. Bosco

    The White House is prioritizing trade negotiations with China over the protection of America’s East Asian allies.

    Throughout his three presidential campaigns and during his time in office, Donald Trump has consistently complained about other countries “ripping off” the United States on trade and security matters. He has been especially vehement in his criticism of US allies and partners for not fairly sharing the common defense burden and not doing enough even for their own self-defense.

    In October 2024, he criticized Taiwan on that basis and also for “stealing” America’s computer chip technology. Last year, then-former Trump appointee Elbridge Colby faulted the Biden administration for spending resources on Ukraine’s defense that he said would be better used to shore up Taiwan’s security against the growing threat from Communist China, a more “vital” US security interest. But during his confirmation hearing to join the new Trump administration, he significantly softened his tone of urgency about the Chinese threat to Taiwan, saying Taiwan is an important US interest but “not an existential one.” In yet a third iteration, Colby, now defense policy undersecretary, said in July that Taiwan’s security is “crucial” to the United States.

    At the annual Singapore security conference in May, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth implored Asian allies to step up and help meet the rising threat from China. “We are preparing for war in order to deter war—to achieve peace through strength. And…we look…to our allies and to our partners—to join us in this important work. Our time is now. The threats we face will not wait.” Given Taiwan’s economic and strategic value to the region and the world, Colby, in a joint press conference with Hegseth last month, demanded that Japan and Australia clarify their positions on a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

    Newly-appointed Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi impressed Trump after their meeting last month by presenting herself as the heir to Shinzo Abe and has presided over a range of defense enhancements in Japan. She has heard the Colby-Hegseth message and sought to answer the call. She recognizes that an invasion of Taiwan, just 60 miles from Japan’s southernmost island, would indeed constitute an existential threat to Japan: “If battleships are used and a naval blockade involves the use of force, I believe that would, by any measure, constitute a situation that could be deemed a threat to Japan’s survival.”

    Her statement substantially satisfied, at least in Japan’s case, the Trump administration’s demands that countries in the region state their commitment to Taiwan’s security even though the United States itself declines to do so.

    With its usual hyper-sensitive posturing, Beijing took umbrage at Japan’s stating the obvious. A flurry of intemperate comments from Chinese officials ensued. According to Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, the protests were followed by a phone call last week between Chinese president Xi Jinping and President Trump during which the former issued an official complaint. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump immediately called the prime minister to caution her about angering China, though Japan’s Foreign Ministry denied the report.

    In any event, Takaichi ignored calls from Beijing and from some domestic opponents to retract her statement. However, she did say she would have no further comments on any Japanese response to an attack on Taiwan. That put Japan closer to America’s own policy of strategic ambiguity regarding the defense of Taiwan and fell short of the Hegseth-Colby demand for strategic clarity on the part of others, if not of Washington itself.

    Whether Trump warned Takaichi on Xi’s behalf is yet to be determined and the closest he could come to her defense against China’s threats and insults was to say that she would make a “great leader.” But he missed an important opportunity to not only stand with an indispensable and loyal ally but also tell Beijing that its increasingly strident threats against Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and other allies are not the way for China and the United States to work together for a stable and peaceful world. But for Trump, the prospects of a successful trade deal with China took priority over long-term security concerns, especially since, according to Trump, Xi assured him last month that he would not attack Taiwan during his term in office.

    Hopefully, the muddled Japan-China-Taiwan episode will encourage the Trump administration to make clear that Chinese aggression against Taiwan or other US allies will inevitably mean war with the United States, with all the dire consequences that will follow. By reversing Beijing’s incessant warnings that formal independence for Taiwan would precipitate war, the United States should advise Xi that the opposite dynamic could occur as well.

    Chinese military action against Taiwan will precipitate US recognition of Taiwan’s independence. It will be as counterproductive for the aggressor as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which brought Sweden and Finland into NATO. A potential catastrophe for China may be the only effective deterrent to its aggressive ambitions.