National Interest

by John Venable

    Command of the skies will depend on the development of a Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion program.

    Rebuilding America’s industrial base is a major theme of the Trump administration—and China’s ability to deliver more than 200 fighter aircraft a year makes the urgency unmistakable for the military. The 2026 National Security Strategy (NSS) echoes that theme, clearly stating the need to rebuild our military and renew the defense industrial base required to deter conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

    Deterring Chinese aggression against the First Island Chain (Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and the surrounding islands) depends on Beijing believing that any offensive operation it could mount would likely fail against the US military. That task would rely primarily on airpower and the most critical—yet often overlooked—capability required to thwart such a move is the US fighter engine industrial base.

    To fully realize America’s deterrence goals against China, the United States must urgently accelerate the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program, which will deliver the capabilities required for our next-generation fighters.

• China’s Relentless Air Power Surge

    Over the last 15 years, China has elevated and transformed its military into a true peer rival of the United States. Its military-industrial complex now outproduces every other nation by a significant margin, delivering more than 100 fifth-generation J-20s and more than 140 fourth-plus-generation J-10, J-16 and J-20 aircraft each year.

    Since 2010, every frontline fighter unit in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been refitted with four-plus- and fifth-generation fighters. The PLAAF is now acquiring fighters at a rate nearly four times that of the entire US Department of Defense. Even with its current inventory, if a conflict broke out in the South China Sea today, China could generate and fly roughly four times as many sorties as the United States and its regional allies could project over Taiwan. Moreover, China’s military-industrial complex would allow the PLAAF to sustain a high-intensity campaign—through significant attrition—for months, if not years.

• US Cold War Air Dominance

    The last time the United States possessed the capacity, capability and readiness required to defeat a peer adversary was during the Cold War. In the 1980s, it wasn’t just our military that was ready—our industrial base led the world in virtually every imaginable military technology. It didn’t merely develop the most maneuverable fighters, the first combat stealth platforms, or advanced precision-guided munitions; it also had the capacity to produce them at a rate sufficient to sustain high-intensity combat operations long enough to defeat a Soviet offensive.

    The fighter engine technology developed during that era delivered thrust-to-weight ratios that enabled high-energy maneuvering—a key pillar in the birth of fourth-generation fighters. Pratt & Whitney’s F100-PW-229 and General Electric’s F110-GE-129 engines, developed in the 1980s, have dominated all others for more than 40 years. Unfortunately, the engines fielded since then rely on the same basic technology—now nearly five decades old.

    The generational leap in capabilities represented by the F-35—and now the Air Force and Navy Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platforms—are designed around the demands for higher thrust, increased cooling for avionics, and, perhaps most importantly, significantly improved fuel efficiency—giving them the range required not just to reach, but to punish, any enemy offensive in the Indo-Pacific.

    Numbers matter and there is little doubt that the US defense industry needs a significant infusion of funding to expand production capacity. But the United States must also develop and field the technology that will allow American Airmen to dominate such a fight. The stealth, sensors and weapons of the F-35 already provide a decisive edge and advanced next-generation capabilities like NGAD will ensure that advantage endures. Yet the vast distances of the Pacific theater mean the dominance either platform can deliver will ultimately be constrained by its engines.

    The Air Force recognized this reality in 2007 and, over the next 17 years, invested more than $4 billion in a series of programs that evolved into the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP). AETP’s goal was to increase thrust by 10 percent, improve fuel efficiency by 25 percent and double the cooling and electrical power.

    The concept was based on a novel three-air stream design that can seamlessly shift between high-thrust combat modes and efficient cruise modes using its adaptive third airstream. Miraculously, AETP met all four objectives, but 2024 Air Force budget priorities prevented the program from transitioning to production.

• How to Accelerate the NGAP

    AETP’s technology provides an exceptional foundation for NGAP, but funding remains the primary barrier to completion. While recent contract modifications have raised NGAP ceilings to $3.5 billion for both Pratt & Whitney and General Electric, actual FY2026 congressional funding levels would keep NGAP development in little more than a caretaker status.

    The administration and Congress must significantly increase funding for NGAP to ensure that the defense sector can accelerate design, build and test their prototypes to reduce risk for downstream production and that funding must come as rapidly as possible.

    Without NGAP, the two NGAD programs and upgraded F-35s will rely on decades-old propulsion, effectively fielding sixth-generation fighters constrained by 1980s-era engine technology. Facing an adversary with a massive capacity advantage and near-peer technological capabilities, America’s airmen will depend on every additional pound of thrust, mile of range and megawatt of power and cooling available to prevail.

    The Donald Trump administration’s vision for a renewed and dominant industrial base demands bold action—particularly for the military. Accelerate NGAP now and secure America’s edge in airpower for generations to come.