National Interest

by Robert Ellis

    Faced with an unpredictable United States, Europe is cautiously moving toward more strategic independence. It may want to hurry up.

    Six years ago, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, warned that Europe could no longer rely on America to defend its NATO allies. Macron has since been proved right and Europe has finally heeded his warning that it needs to start thinking of itself as a strategic geopolitical power. In this regard, the EU summit in December was a pivotal moment, prompted by the prospect of Ukraine’s collapse.

    President Donald Trump’s National Security Strategy (NSS) makes clear “the days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.” It will rebalance its trade relations and seek “fair, reciprocal trade deals” through the strategic use of tariffs. But the system of reciprocal tariffs has not only upended global trade but also opened a debate on “affordability.”

    The document’s ire is reserved for Europe. In a reflection of JD Vance’s address at the Munich Security Conference in February, it notes that apart from economic decline, “it is faced with the real and more stark prospect of civilisational erasure.”

    The NSS raises the issue of mass migration and states, “the era of mass migration must end.” It foresees that, if current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable within 20 years. Furthermore, “it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” and the fear is not unjustified.

    In 2015, Europe experienced a massive influx of refugees when German chancellor Angela Merkel, in a Mother Teresa moment, declared “Wir schaffen das” (We can do it) and flung open Europe’s doors to the Middle East’s tired, poor and huddled masses.

    France has its ZUS (Sensitive Urban Zones) with a high immigrant population, Sweden is overwhelmed by immigrant-led gang warfare and the European Court of Justice has ruled that the Danish “ghetto law” in 2018 may violate EU equality directives.

    The main thrust of the NSS is on defense. The slogan is “peace through strength” to cement Trump’s legacy as “the president of peace.” Trump has signed a nearly $1 trillion defense bill, which includes $800 million for Ukraine and $175 million for three Baltic states. And the number of US forces in Europe will not fall below 76,000. The US European commander also retains the title of NATO supreme commander.

    The NSS notes Europe’s insufficient military spending but also mentions the Hague Commitment, which pledges that NATO countries will spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense. The EU has stepped up its efforts in this respect with Readiness 2030, which provides up to €800 billion in additional defense expenditure to combat the threat from Russia and support Ukraine.

    The NSS considers European relations with Russia “deeply attenuated,” and that managing them will require “significant US diplomatic engagement.” This falls considerably short of expectations, as evidenced by the 28-point peace plan concocted by US envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev. As Politico points out, Witkoff, a real estate developer, views the conflict through a real estate lens like a land dispute.

    Now a revised 20-point peace plan is under discussion, but a meeting between Zelensky and Trump at Mar-a-Lago has proved inconclusive. The alleged attack by Ukraine on Putin’s residence in Novgorod has led Russia to confirm its maximalist demands.

    Among EU members, the Baltic and Nordic states have devoted the greatest resources to Ukraine commensurate with their abilities, with Denmark as a frontrunner. The Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, like the Celtic warrior queen Boudicca, has taken a singular position and was ranked by Politico as the second most influential person in Europe (after Donald Trump). Together with British prime minister Keir Starmer, she has called for a revision of the asylum system to prioritize genuine refugees rather than those seeking economic opportunities.

    At a summit in December, the EU prepared a rescue plan in response to Ukraine’s looming financial collapse. The initial plan, backed by EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, German chancellor Friedrich Merz and Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen, was to use frozen Russian assets to secure a loan for Ukraine.

    However, the plan was scuppered by Belgium’s resistance (€185 billion of Russia’s €210 billion frozen assets are held by Euroclear in Brussels) and by France’s Macron and Italy’s Meloni. Instead, what was agreed by 24 Union members (Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic were excluded) was a €90 billion loan secured by the EU’s budget.

    Donald Trump has added fuel to the flames. He has renewed US claims to Greenland on grounds of national security and with reference to the Louisiana purchase, Trump regards Greenland as “a big deal.”

    The Danish intelligence service, in a comprehensive analysis, states that the United States now uses economic and technological coercion against allies and partners. After the Venezuela strikes, Katie Miller’s post on X, marking out Greenland as “soon,” is hardly likely to impress its NATO ally.

    Today, six European leaders, together with the Danish prime minister, issued a joint statement on Greenland, where, as NATO members, they declared that Greenland belongs to its people and that only they and Denmark can decide on matters that concern them.

    Ursula von der Leyen and Macron have declared their support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Denmark and Greenland, but this is of no consequence for the Trump administration.

    In his New Year’s address, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the peace plan agreed with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago is 90 percent ready. On Saturday, a meeting was held in Kyiv with the national security advisors of the member states of the “Coalition of the Willing.” On Tuesday, a meeting was held in Paris with the coalition’s leaders. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also attended.

    The coalition, founded in London at the beginning of March, comprises 35 countries, along with the president of the European Council, the president of the European Commission and NATO’s secretary general. The aim is to deploy European-led forces, backed by US security guarantees, to secure a peace deal in Ukraine, but Russia has rejected this as “demonstrably unviable.”

    Edward Luce, The Financial Times’ US correspondent, described Russia as a ravenous carnivore and Europe a pasture of well-fed herbivores. Now is the time for Europe to show its teeth.