National Interest

by Andreas Umland and Jakob Hedenskog

    Ukraine is considering a wide variety of policy changes to increase military recruitment.

    During the first months of Russia’s full-scale invasion that started in February 2022, many Ukrainian volunteers—male and female—joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), including the Territorial Defense Forces, in order to rescue their fatherland. The AFU’s initial aptitude to push back the much larger Russian army surprised the outside world. Equally astonishing has been Ukraine’s ability to hold the frontline against Russia. Few other European nations would have been able to do so.

    Nevertheless, since 2023, the recruitment of additional Ukrainian men and women for military service has become increasingly challenging for Kyiv. There is a growing gap between those who serve and those who have been able to evade mobilization. This injustice is demoralizing and creates growing problems for Ukrainian social-political cohesion.

    The main factors responsible for the AFU’s manpower shortage are Ukrainian institutional weakness and corruption, social fatigue and mental exhaustion, deficiencies in military training and leadership, demographic and economic constraints and the impact of Russian propaganda. There is an intense Ukrainian public, political and expert debate about how to overcome these hurdles. The main issue is how to motivate more Ukrainians to join voluntarily, become recruited into and continue serving in the AFU.

    A 2024 mobilization law, as well as some further reforms currently being implemented or planned, are addressing the discrepancy between Ukraine’s ongoing need for soldiers and the growing reluctance of men and women to serve in the military. Among other things, the system for registering men eligible for recruitment and potential female soldiers has been upgraded and the rules of mobilization have been clarified.

    Further changes include salary hikes for all categories of military personnel, bonuses upon signing a contract, increased new recruits’ ability to influence the type of military service and the unit in which they will serve and preferential service terms for young people aged 18 to 24. Yet, these advances have not yet stopped the growth of the Ukrainian state’s deficit of active servicemen and women.

    Worse, the unresolved mobilization issue challenges Ukraine’s reputation among international partners. In the past, some US analysts argued, for instance, that as long as Ukraine provided the necessary manpower, the United States and Europe could support Kyiv with weapons and funds. Military recruitment has become a credibility issue for Ukraine.

    Not only are the Ukrainian government and relevant NGOs discussing how to address these various issues, but foreign observers are as well. Numerous commentators have remarked that the Ukrainian government and parliament should aim to: (a) create more just, fairer and more attractive conditions for military service; (b) tackle the issue of demobilization according to transparent rules; (c) resolutely address such issues as corruption and incompetent command and (d) work more to preserve public trust, social cohesion and national unity.

    New ideas being considered by the Ukrainian government, the national and international expert community and civil society to resolve the AFU’s manpower problem are multifaceted. The changes discussed are mostly designed to increase the attractiveness of military service and range from larger financial incentives to improved training and military command, to fighting mismanagement, to the wider use of unmanned vehicles for assault operations, to increased rotation and to longer leave for soldiers. There are also debates about gender neutral conscription and more recruitment of foreign mercenaries.

    International partners of Ukraine can help the AFU provide its soldiers with attractive pay, excellent kit, first-class medical services and advanced, sufficient weaponry. The AFU’s ability to defend Ukraine with long-range arms and perform as many frontline tasks as possible with the help of unmanned vehicles should be strengthened. Ukrainian organizations and individuals promoting military reforms and anti-corruption measures should be supported from outside. The Ukrainian government’s and civil society’s efforts to treat wounded or traumatized soldiers and to reintegrate veterans into society need more support from abroad.

    The European partners of Ukraine should deploy, within the so-called SkyShield initiative, interceptor planes to Western and Central Ukraine to create an Integrated Air Protection Zone that would allow Kyiv to move soldiers and equipment from the rear to the frontline in the east. Countries hosting significant numbers of refugees from Ukraine might want to consider, together with Ukraine’s embassies, what initiatives and measures can encourage Ukrainian men and women to return home and join the AFU.

    Last but not least, Kyiv’s friends should support Ukraine with all the political, economic and military leverage they have to safeguard the country’s sovereignty during the ongoing US-led process for a negotiated settlement to the war and to create the conditions for a just and lasting peace. Russia is entering the negotiations with demands that Ukraine’s sovereignty be limited in terms of the size of its army and its ability to receive assistance from external partners. These restrictions would further exacerbate the challenges Ukraine faces in its self-defense, in the mobilization and training of its soldiers, in its political system and in its social cohesion. They would increase the likelihood of future Russian aggression that could directly affect not only Ukraine but also the rest of Europe.