National Interest

by Luke Coffey and Daniel Kochis

    America’s transatlantic alliance is still the linchpin of global security and prosperity.

    As the United States celebrates its semiquincentennial, it’s worth considering that for nearly a third of the nation’s existence, we have been formally tied to and treaty-obligated to defend, NATO allies (and vice versa). This North Atlantic alliance, for the past 77 years, has served as one of the few truly irreplaceable foundations of American prosperity and security, as well as a wellspring for American influence and power across the globe.

    Today, as the United States faces steep challenges from the China-led authoritarian bloc, some question whether we have the spare attention or resources to remain actively engaged in Europe. The question we should really be asking is: how can we afford not to  Europe remains as vital to American interests in 2026 as it was at the height of the Cold War. A robust transatlantic alliance will be key to ensuring that the future our children and grandchildren inherit is in a Western-led world, not a dystopian, authoritarian-led one.

    America’s alliance structure, first and foremost the NATO alliance, is a crucial advantage that should not be taken for granted nor squandered. The United States has close confederates; China has client states. Despite the closer economic, military and political ties Beijing has forged with Moscow and Tehran in recent years, it cannot match the depth and strength of US alliances.

    NATO is not a relic of the past, nor an albatross to be jettisoned, but rather a central component of US national interests that should be maintained and strengthened. Europe still matters today; here are four reasons why:

    First, Europe is too economically important for the United States to ignore. America’s economic future may increasingly lie with Asia, but right now North America and Europe together still account for roughly half of global GDP. Europe is one of America’s most important export markets. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, 48 of 50 states export more to Europe than to China. On the whole, the United States exports four times as many goods to Europe as to China. And if you are a worker in America’s heartland, in states such as Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, or Kentucky, your state exports many times more to Europe than to China. When an American worker builds a product for export, that is an American job.

    Europe is also America’s largest source of foreign investment. According to the US Chamber of Commerce, European firms account for 56 percent of all global foreign direct investment in the United States, with European investment stock exceeding $3.5 trillion. Europe also holds far more US sovereign debt than does China, with the United Kingdom alone holding 44 percent more than Beijing. Our economic relationship with Europe creates millions of jobs on this side of the Atlantic. The stability provided by the US military presence in Europe, along with NATO’s role as the continent’s main security guarantor, therefore benefits not only the US economy but ultimately the American worker.

    Second, America’s alliances and partnerships in Europe give US policymakers more options in a dangerous world. America’s forward-deployed forces in Europe and the allies and partners that come with them, distinguish the United States from Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing lack the same network of allies and partners offering basing and overflight rights. This limits their global reach.

    America’s military presence in Europe is not necessarily only about Europe. Yes, the presence of tens of thousands of US troops on the continent helps defend Europe. But this is a consequence of America’s military presence there, not the ultimate reason for it.

    One only has to look beyond the continent, from North Africa to the Middle East, through Russia and into the Arctic. This wider region is marked by instability and unpredictability and has been the source of many geopolitical challenges in the past. It is also home to some of the world’s most important trade and transit chokepoints. America’s network of allies and bases across Europe allows the United States to project force around the world in a way that would otherwise be impossible. A recent example of this advantage is US operations against Iran, the length and lethality of which would not have been sustainable without access to European basing, which European taxpayers in many cases subsidize.

    There were, of course, some frustrating cases of European countries refusing to allow the United States to use their airspace or bases during the recent strikes against Iran. Spain was the clearest example. But this was the exception rather than the rule. According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, roughly 500 US aircraft used bases in Italy in support of the operation. The United Kingdom also played an important role by allowing the United States to use its territory for missions against Iran. Germany also played a role. In March, three US B-1B Lancer bombers returning from missions over Iran diverted unexpectedly to Ramstein Air Base after fog and low visibility prevented them from landing at their base in the United Kingdom.

    The episode underscored the operational flexibility that America’s European basing network provides. In Bulgaria, so many US KC-135 refueling aircraft were operating out of Sofia’s Vasil Levski Airport that temporary overnight restrictions were placed on civilian aviation. The United States also made significant use of Portugal’s Lajes Field and is quietly increasing its anti-submarine warfare (ASW) presence there.

    Third, Europe matters to the United States because Ukraine is in Europe and Ukraine is the future. Ukraine now has one of the most combat-tested armed forces in the world and will no doubt play a vital role in the future of European security. With its creativity, innovation and skilled workforce, Ukraine will become a defense-industrial powerhouse in Europe in the coming years.

    Even before Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine regularly ranked among the world’s top ten defense exporters. Even during the current war with Russia, its defense industrial base has continued to grow in scale and capability. US defense companies are already building relationships with Ukraine’s defense industry.

    It is not just in Europe where Ukraine will play an important geopolitical role aligned with US security interests. Recent events have shown how Ukraine can play an important role in other regions, including the Middle East, by helping the Gulf states and the US military improve their defenses against Iranian drone threats. It is inconceivable that the United States could have a serious national security strategy to deter and if necessary, defeat, its adversaries without Ukraine playing a future role.

    Fourth and finally, Europe and the forward-basing America enjoys there will matter in any Indo-Pacific contingency. If war were to break out in the South China Sea, it would be naive to think America’s adversaries in East Asia would allow the United States unfettered access to lines of communication and resupply routes across the Pacific. America’s facilities in Europe would enable the United States to diversify its logistics and resupply options to support military operations in the Indo-Pacific.

    These distances may look daunting on a map. Still, from the US East Coast, an eastward route through Europe toward East Asia is broadly comparable to a westward route that first crosses the continental United States and then crosses the Pacific. In a major Indo-Pacific contingency, access to European bases and airspace could help the United States diversify its logistics and reduce dependence on contested Pacific routes. Those who advocate prioritizing America’s military presence in Asia often fail to understand the important role that access to European airspace and bases could play in supporting that very mission.

    Furthermore, Europe’s rapidly expanding defense industrial capacity should be seen as injecting much-needed resilience in American defense supply chains while further adding an option to scale far more quickly than the United States could by going it alone. The war against Iran has placed serious strains on stocks of key munitions that are not easily or quickly replaced. Rebuilding those stocks and rearming for a future conflict will prove far more fruitful if the Pentagon factors in Europe’s growing capacity.

    Transatlantic security is American security. For economic, political and strategic reasons, Europe still matters greatly to the United States. Revitalizing and strengthening NATO is therefore not an act of nostalgia—but rather an investment in the strategic advantage that has underpinned American prosperity and power for generations. As America celebrates 250 years, it may face challenging global headwinds but is lucky to enjoy a fleet of friends with whom to sail forth and meet them head-on.