National Interest

by Jacob Heilbrunn

    For the first time in over a decade, President Donald Trump’s stranglehold over US politics looks irretrievably broken.

    It turns out that festooning the Oval Office in gold at a moment when gas prices are soaring is not a good idea. It turns out that imposing tariffs at a moment when inflation is ticking up doesn’t go over well. It turns out that pilfering millions in cryptocurrency when American households are struggling to pay their grocery bills isn’t such a nifty move. And it turns out that starting a war in the Middle East when you’ve promised “no more forever wars” isn’t all that popular, either.

    President Donald Trump, who has been floating on a personal jet stream of hot air for the last decade and more, came tumbling down last night as American voters decisively repudiated the GOP in the midterm elections. Ohio is gone. Texas turned blue. Kansas elected a Democrat for the first time since 1932, the year that Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt. Susan Collins’ (R-ME) 30-year tenure in Maine came to a terminus. Keisha Lance Bottoms is Georgia’s new governor. So sweeping were the losses that President Trump forwent any opportunity to challenge the results. Instead, he proclaimed that he was prepared to work with Democrats and, incidentally, that the first two years of his presidency had been remarkably successful.

    Trump has been wholly consistent. He went bankrupt six or so times. Now he has wrecked the GOP by squandering the chance to harness the populist forces that he originally rode to the presidency. The result is that he has become what he loathes—a loser. As the National Review rather politely put it in an editorial about the midterms, “Even though Trump’s terms were not consecutive, clearly there is a lot of fatigue with a political figure who has been dominating the political conversation since he came down that escalator more than eleven years ago.”

    The MAGA movement is no longer moving. Trump’s signature bullying, braying and bellicosity have reached their limits, at least in terms of political effectiveness. Trump has succeeded in what seemed impossible. He united the American people—against him.

    The Republican Party suffered a crushing loss in the 1974 midterm elections only to rebound six years later to win the presidency. It may take longer for the GOP to bounce back this time because of the sweeping nature of its losses on the state level. Much of the gerrymandering that took place over the past decade will be reversed.

For Vice President JD Vance, the midterms must be ringing particularly clangorously. Vance tethered his fortunes to Trump, moving from calling him a Hitlerian figure to embracing him as a national savior. Vance, like Trump, stood behind Vivek Ramaswamy for his vile ad about his opponent Amy Acton. Ramaswamy will be forgotten. Vance’s support for him will not. Will Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has tried to maintain a lower profile, emerge as the new frontrunner  Or will it be former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has emerged as a voluble critic of Trump

    With almost 228 House and 54 Senate seats, Democrats won a historic victory. The race for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028 will be heated. Jon Ossoff, who was reelected to the Senate, denounced the “depravity, corruption and incompetence” of the Trump administration last night. At the same time, Trump’s ability to appoint a new member of the Supreme Court or federal judges has come to a halt. Investigations of his administration will proliferate. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will not be hostage to “The Squad”. Nor will Chuck Schumer (D-NY) have to worry about a new Joe Manchin scenario. Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman’s (D-PA) role as spoiler has been terminated.

    Trump continues to command sweeping powers, particularly in foreign affairs. But predictions of him lashing out wildly against Iran or concluding a sweeping deal with Russia over Ukraine may be misplaced. Attacking Iran will simply compound Trump’s problems in the Middle East; Ukraine is reliant on Europe more than America—and foreign leaders know that he has now passed his sell-by date.