American Thinker

by Joseph Ford Cotto

    After the GOP’s midterm wipeout, Vice President J.D. Vance chose to diagnose the Republican losses by placing primary blame on the Iranian conflict. This happened on November 4, before some races were even called. He listed America’s warm relationship with Israel among the top reasons 2024 Trump-Vance voters defected.

    His lengthy assessment claimed internal data showed solid turnout in many states and an electorate only modestly less Republican than in 2024. However, many prior supporters were angry and voting blue. Vance wrote that a top pollster’s data identified four key answers from defecting voters for what would bring them back. Here goes: end the war, focus on cost of living and inflation, put America first, and change Uncle Sam’s relationship to Israel.

    He declared the real reason for the midterm drubbing “obvious to almost everyone” and stated, “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”

    Ari Fleischer is a Trump supporter who was the White House press secretary under George W. Bush. He answered Vance directly and correctly. Fleischer said the problem was not the conflict itself but the unenviable cease-fire that followed. Fleischer wrote, “If you start a war, you need to win it and finish it -- otherwise don’t start it.” He argued the conflict should have ended months earlier with the Strait of Hormuz open, Iranian leadership thoroughly destroyed, and pro-Western forces supported.

    Instead, Fleischer said, months of mixed signals left the United States in limbo, prices higher, and troops still deployed. The decision to confront Iran was right. Stopping short of a decisive result was the failure.

    President Donald J. Trump’s response to Vance stayed measured. He told the Wall Street Journal the Iranian conflict was only part of what sank Republicans, pointing to oil and gas prices as a larger concern. He rejected regret for battling the Islamist regime: “I don’t think about it. I did the right thing. I would have done it again.”

    Days later, he called Vance’s analysis “largely true” because the war drove gasoline up short-term, yet insisted he would do nothing differently because Iran cannot be allowed a nuclear weapon. Publicly alienating the vice president, with more than half the term remaining, would have been disastrous. Mike Pence’s break came near the end of the first Trump term. It still produced extreme damage. An earlier fracture would have been far worse.

    Vance’s public pinning of the midterm losses on the Iranian conflict directly contradicts the president’s rationale for battling an Islamist state. Iran has America’s death as its explicit foreign policy. Vance supplies critics with anti-GOP narratives, fracturing the coalition Trump holds together.

    The Democracy Institute exit poll I wrote shows why unity behind the Trump administration is non-negotiable if Republicans want to win in 2028. On Election Day, 450 Republican voters were surveyed. Eighty-two percent said Trump’s second term has made them more supportive of the party. Only 18 percent felt less supportive. Sixty-eight percent said a Trump endorsement would guide their 2028 primary vote.

    Seventy-one percent said they are likely to vote Republican in 2028, regardless of the economy. Eighty-one percent said they will continue supporting Republicans after the president leaves office. Fifty-seven percent base their Trump support on non-economic issues. These voters have already absorbed the costs of his second term and remain tied to him. Turning on Trump now means turning on the bulk of the Republican electorate.

    Exit poll data, collected by SSRS, confirms the base held while independents swung hard left. Republicans and Republican leaners, 43 percent of the electorate, backed GOP U.S. House candidates 92 percent to 7 percent. Democrats locked in at 98 percent to 2 percent. Independents who lean toward neither party broke 58 percent Democratic to 32 percent Republican. Republicans won only 38 percent of independents overall, their worst showing with that group since 1998.

    The midterm results were horrendous, yet they sit within historical norms, though on the more extreme end of those norms. Since 1980, turnout among voting-age citizens has averaged 63 percent in presidential years and 48 percent in midterms, a 15-point drop-off. The remaining voters are older, more established, and far less likely to split tickets. Since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of 25 House seats. Presidents under 50 percent approval have seen losses near 37 seats.

    The 2026 outcome fits that long pattern, even if the scale was severe. The sky is not falling in the larger scheme. Despite what Vance purports, Republicans maintained their own voters. Democrats simply produced presidential-election-level turnout, while independents went blue.

    Vance’s post-midterm judgment compounds earlier failures. He has refused to cut ties with Tucker Carlson. Even after Carlson declared himself out of the Republican Party, called the GOP immoral and disloyal, accused it of placing Israeli interests above American citizens, and suggested Trump should be removed from office.

    Carlson’s record includes platforming a Holocaust denier, describing Christian Zionism as a “brain virus,” and other statements far outside the Republican consensus. Gallup has shown that GOP sentiment is roughly 70-percent favorable toward Israel. As former Marine, Vance should know that standing in the White House briefing room to protect his friendship with Carlson is not loyalty. It is a dishonorable choice that divides the GOP coalition.

    Fox News Digital reported that Vance is actively courting disaffected 2024 voters to form a “new right” alliance focused on ending the Iranian conflict, affordability, alleged America-first priorities, and changing the U.S. relationship with Israel. This is an early effort to assemble a post-Trump coalition that doubtlessly includes figures ostracized from the GOP. That toxic, conspiratorial element, driven by resentment, would doom Republican prospects. Vance appears willing to use it for his own purposes.

    Florida Congressman Randy Fine, a staunch Trump loyalist, called Vance’s midterm analysis abhorrent and wrong. Fine said Vance had blamed Jews for the losses, compared the rhetoric to 1932 Germany, and stated he would not endorse Vance in the 2028 primary.

    A longtime confidant texted Vance on Election Day, advising him to consider sitting out the next presidential race. Allies are privately grappling with whether any Republican can win in 2028, after the scale of the midterm setback. Even among those inclined to support Vance, serious doubt exists that he can hold the Trump coalition together.

    The bottom line is clear. The time is not now for J.D. Vance. He has no business running for president. A Vance candidacy would tear the already weathered Republican coalition apart. The Democracy Institute numbers show Trump is holding the party together. Vance’s public, destructive diagnosis of the midterms, his refusal to distance himself from Tucker Carlson, and his obvious outreach to an exiled, radioactive faction all point in the same direction. He is fracturing the GOP base rather than reinforcing it.

    Republican voters should reject that path flatly. Unity behind Donald Trump, and what his administration has accomplished, is the only realistic route forward. Anything else is a self-inflicted wound the party cannot afford, leaving nation-wrecking Democrats to run rampant.

    Dr. Joseph Ford Cotto is the creator, host, and producer of News Sight, delivering sharp insights on the key events that shape our lives. He publishes Dr. Cotto’s Digest, sharing how business and the economy really impact us all. During the 2024 presidential race, he developed the Five-Point Forecast, which accurately predicted Donald Trump’s national victory and correctly called every swing state. Cotto holds a doctorate in business administration and is a Lean Six Sigma Certified Black Belt.