An interesting message was published on the Internet at the end of February 2022 with the start of Russia's special military operation aimed to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine. Its essence was that employees of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) prevented a plot aimed to create Galician Republic in the west part of Ukraine (Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Lviv Oblasts) with subsequent secession of the Ukraine. In the result of exposure of a plot about 500 people were arrested.

   At a first glance, it is quite strange statement. Moreover, there is a great doubt that there was such a plot and it ended with the mass arrests in different regions of Ukraine. Is it fake called to show the work of cloak-and-dagger agents on integrity protection of Ukraine or there is another thing behind it? There is reason to suspect that behind this statement hidden an intention of Ukrainian leaders to explore public opinion in order to save west territories of the country and then with luck to announce there nationhood in the form of Galician Republic, which will include Bukovina, Zakarpattia and 5 regions. In fact, all of this is happening amid a backdrop of the appeal of the Ukrainian leadership to EU heads about fast-track membership in EU. Let’s try to consider this question from all sides taking into account the emerging new realities.

   One of these realities is southeast of Ukraine. In these territories a new state will be formed with center in Kharkov. It looks quite logical and expected. The creation of a state under the conditional name Novorossiya with its own president will allow uniting territories where the Russian-speaking people live, while forgetting about central Ukraine. And only memories will connect these two states. Moreover all these southeast regions were the breadbasket of Ukraine and gave food to the whole country. In the face of the coming hunger it gives them good chanceses to survive.Withdrawal of Russian troops and it subsequent replacement on DNR and LNR militaries will also break the tension.

   The second state formation could be central Ukraine. It creation could become possible after Kiev liberation. Kiev leadership will reflect the interests of Russia. Creation of this two states will push Galicia to separation from new state formations with state proclamation and following calling to NATO for recognition and protection. Due to the fact that every nation has it is own right to self-determination they will be heard in Europe.

   Poland, which is most interested in the return of its western territories, may get a great headache for many years if such a scenario could become a reality. Now on the west territories of Ukraine is going mass mobilization and creation of new armed forces. Sure, no one does not redeploy this forces to help Kiev because of low levels of competence and insufficient armament. They will be joined by those who manage to survive at fighting front. As a result, the new State will receive an explosive mix.

   If Russian aviation do not destroy nationalist formations congestion places (what Polish military leadership no doubt prays for) armed conflict between Poland and nationalist divisions is inevitable. It can take years and affect millions of Ukrainian citizens, living in that region. The key reason of planned by polish government restitution is negative attitude of the Poles to Bandera and Shukhevych. This will also lead to a conflict between the nationalists and civilian population mostly from rural sector, which will be satisfied by presence of a NATO country on the territory of Galician Republic.

   Galicia sees Transcarpathia as part of its state and for many years have been prepared to it’s affiliation. First of all strengthening administrative, economic ties, personnel relations. That is why creation of Galician Republic will lead to inevitable conflict escalation with population of Transcarpathia. More then 200 000 people from Halychyna (another name of Galicia) live on the territory of Transcarpathia. Many of them work in public authorities, courts, prosecutors, police, SBU. Hungary and Slovakia are closely watching this region in order not to allow expansion of Halychyna to Transcarpathia. A clash of interests is inevitable. That is why the fact that children in parks of Uchgorod are leant to flash «Bandera Smoothies» is not surprising. Those who speak that and learn children got friendly instructions from Galicia heads. Battle for the West Ukraine, Transcarpathia and Bukovina has started. We have to wait its results.