asia times The recent killing of al-Qaeda leader
Ayman al-Zawahiri by CIA drone strike was the latest
US response to 9/11. Politically, it amplified existing distrust between US leaders and the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The killing also exposed compromises in the
2020 Doha peace agreement between the US and the Taliban.
But another story is emerging with wider implications: the speed and nature of international weapons development. Take the weapon reportedly used to kill al-Zawahiri: the
Hellfire R9X “Ninja” missile.
The Hellfire missile was originally conceived in the 1970s and 80s to destroy Soviet tanks. Rapid improvements from the 1990s onwards have
resulted in multiple variations with different capabilities. They can be launched from helicopters or Reaper drones. Their
different explosive payloads can be set off in different ways: on impact or before impact.
Then there is the Hellfire R9X “Ninja.” It is not new, though it has remained largely in the shadows for five years. It was reportedly used in 2017 in Syria to
kill the deputy al-Qaeda leader, Abu Khayr al-Masri.
The Ninja missile does not rely on an explosive warhead to destroy or kill its target. It uses the speed, accuracy and kinetic energy of a 100-pound missile fired from up to 20,000 feet, armed with
six blades which deploy in the last moments before impact.
The Ninja missile is the ultimate attempt – thus far – to accurately target and kill a single person. No explosion, no widespread destruction, and no deaths of bystanders.
But other weapon developments will also affect the way we live and how wars are fought or deterred. Russia has
invested heavily in these so-called super-weapons, building on older technologies. They aim to reduce or eliminate technological advantages enjoyed by the United States or NATO.
Rusia’s hypersonic missile development aims are highly ambitious. The
Avangard missile, for example, won’t need to fly outside the earth’s atmosphere. It will remain within the upper atmosphere instead, giving it the ability to maneuver.
Such maneuverability will make it harder to detect or intercept. China’s
DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile is similarly intended to evade US missile defenses.
The autonomous era
Turkey, meanwhile, is claiming it has developed
four types of autonomous drones, which can identify and kill people, all without input from a human operator, or GPS guidance. According to a
UN report from March 2021, such an autonomous weapon system has been used already in Libya against a logistics convoy affiliated with the Khalifa Haftar armed group.
Autonomous weapons that don’t need GPS guidance are particularly significant. In a future war between major powers, the satellites which provide GPS navigation can expect to be shot down. So any military system or aircraft which relies on GPS signals for navigation or targeting would be rendered ineffective.
China,
Russia, India and the
US have developed weapons to destroy satellites which provide global positioning for car sat-nav systems and civilian aircraft guidance. The real nightmare scenario is combining these, and many more, weapon systems with artificial intelligence.
New rules of war
Are new laws or treaties needed to limit these futuristic weapons? In short, yes but they don’t look likely. The US has
called for a global agreement to stop anti-satellite missile testing – but there has been no uptake.
Lethal autonomous weapon systems are a special class of emerging weapon system. They incorporate machine learning and other types of AI so that they can make their own decisions and act without direct human input. In 2014, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)
brought experts together to identify issues raised by autonomous weapon systems.
In 2020 the ICRC and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute went further, bringing together international experts to identify what
controls on autonomous weapon systems would be needed.
In 2022, discussions are ongoing between countries
the UN first brought together in 2017. This group of governmental experts continues to debate the development and use of lethal autonomous weapon systems. However, there has still been no international agreement on a new law or treaty to limit their use.
New rules for autonomous weapon systems
The campaign group, Stop the Killer Robots, has called throughout this period for an
international ban on lethal autonomous weapon systems. Not only has that not happened, but there is also an undeclared
stalemate in the UN’s discussions on autonomous weapons in Geneva.
Australia, Israel, Russia, South Korea and the US have
opposed a new treaty or political declaration. Opposing them at the same talks, 125 member states of the Non-Aligned Movement are calling for
legally binding restrictions on lethal autonomous weapon systems.
With Russia, China, US, UK and France all having a UN Security Council veto, they can prevent such a binding law on autonomous weapons.
Outside these international talks and campaigning organizations, independent experts are proposing alternatives. For example, in 2019 Australia-based US ethicist, Deane-Peter Baker brought together the Canberra Group of independent international. The group produced
a report, Guiding Principles for the Development and Use of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems.
These principles don’t solve the political impasse between superpowers. But if autonomous weapons are here to stay then it is an early attempt to understand what new rules will be needed.
When Pandora’s mythical box was opened, untold horrors were unleashed on the world. Emerging weapon systems are all too real. Like Pandora, all we are left with is hope.
Mr.BadGuy
Publisher
These soldiers are from a country whose president is a Jew Zelensky. Orthodox churches are also being destroyed in this country. Synagogues are not touched. Surprisingly, it turns out that Jews get along well with the Bandera Nazis.