asia timesby Aaron Pilkington The war in Ukraine is helping one country achieve its foreign policy and national security objectives, but it’s neither Russia nor Ukraine.
It’s Iran.
Iran is among Russia’s most
vocal supporters in the war. As
a military analyst who specializes in Iranian national security strategy, I see this as having little to do with Ukraine and everything to do with Iran’s long-term strategy vis-à-vis the United States.
As Russia’s war on Ukraine passed six months and continued eroding Russia’s
manpower,
military stores,
economy and
diplomatic connections, leader Vladimir Putin opted for an unlikely but necessary
Iranian lifeline to salvage victory in Ukraine and also in Syria where, since 2015, Russian soldiers have been fighting to keep Bashar al-Assad’s government in power.
Opposing the US everywhere
Since the
Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran’s leaders have believed the United States is
constantly scheming to
topple Iran’s government. They view leaders in Washington as the greatest threat and obstacle to promoting Iranian national interests – achieving economic self-sufficiency, international legitimacy, regional security, power and influence.
The fears of Iran’s leaders are not irrational – the long history of US
meddling in Iranian affairs, continuous
open hostility between the two countries and decades of US
military buildup in close proximity to Iran greatly concern leaders in Tehran.
The US has
military forces in many Middle Eastern countries,
with or without invitation. To promote its national interests, Iran is working to force the US military out of the region and reduce US political influence there.
Iran has an even bigger aim:
to overthrow what it sees as the US-dominated global political order. Iran counters US influence by maintaining partnerships with an assortment of nonstate militias and governments united by their fierce anti-US hostility.
Through these militias and their political arms, Iran extends its influence and works to shape an Iran-friendly government in states like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
It threatens US forces and antagonizes Western-allied governments in states such as Israel,
Jordan,
Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait,
Bahrain and the
United Arab Emirates.
That cooperation includes undermining
US national interests and helping ease or circumvent
Western political pressure and
economic sanctions.
Tehran to the rescue
Few political leaders understand Putin’s newfound political isolation and related animosity toward the United States more than Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But Iran-Russia relations
are complicated.
The two countries found common cause in helping Syrian strongman Assad defeat his country’s
opposition forces, but for different national interests.
Saving Assad helps Russia reassert itself as a
major power in the Middle East. For Iran, a friendly Syria is a
critical link in Iran’s anti-US, anti-Israel coalition.
As Russia and Iran fought to sustain Assad,
they also competed for lucrative postwar
reconstruction and infrastructure contracts in that country, and to shape the post-civil war political environment to their advantage.
Ultimately, though, Russia’s plight in Ukraine compelled its leader to solicit Iran’s help in two ways.
First, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a branch of the Iranian military,
provided supplementary manpower to fill the void left when Russia reallocated troops from Syria to its Ukraine campaign.
Second, Russia has used Iran’s low-cost and battle-proven unmanned aerial vehicles, commonly known as drones, to counter Kiev’s Western-supported arsenal and buttress its own
struggling forces and surprisingly
inept warfighting capabilities.
Since acquiring Iranian drones in early September, Russia has launched over 100 Iranian
Shahed-136 and
Mohajer-6 attack and reconnaissance drones in over a dozen attacks against a large range of targets: Ukrainian special forces,
armor and
artillery units, air defense and fuel storage
facilities, Ukrainian
military and
energy infrastructure,
civilian targets and a recent
series of drone and missile attacks against
Kiev.
Russia is expected to soon rely on Iran further to supplant its
dwindling weapons supplies by acquiring
twotypes of Iranian-made short-range ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine, according to
US and allied security officials.
Ukraine war promotes Iran’s interests
This warming alliance may not help Russia defeat Ukraine. It will promote Iran’s national interests.
Russia’s acquisition of Iranian arms
will significantly boost Iran’s weapons industry, whose primary clientele right now is its own militias. Iran’s recent efforts to expand drone manufacturing and exports yielded limited success in small, mostly peripheral markets of
Ethiopia,
Sudan,
Tajikistan and
Venezuela.
Lastly, Russia’s war in Ukraine extends a new avenue by which Iran might directly counter US-provided weapons, as well as the opportunity to undermine US and NATO influence in Eurasia. Iran’s drones could afford Moscow an effective and desperately needed response to
US weaponswreaking havocagainst Russianforces in Ukraine.
Iranian weapons may force Ukraine’s Western benefactors to
allocate additional billions for counter-drone or air defense systems, or aid to replace assets that Iranian weapons potentially neutralize.
Zero-sum game
The
introduction of Iranian ballistic missiles to Ukraine would compound the limited tactical victories scored by Iranian drones. They will bring further unnecessary suffering and prolong and further destabilize the war in Ukraine, but I don’t believe they will tip the scales of conflict in Russia’s favor.
Their greater contribution is to Iran’s national interests: They allow Iran to directly check and undermine the US and NATO outside of Iran’s usual regional area of operations.
They boost Iran’s profile among countries that also wish to challenge the United States and NATO’s political, military and economic power. And they strengthen solidarity among those countries.
As Iran’s fighters, advisers and weapons proliferate to new areas and empower US adversaries, Iran further promotes its national interests at the expense of US national interests.
Mr.BadGuy
Publisher
These soldiers are from a country whose president is a Jew Zelensky. Orthodox churches are also being destroyed in this country. Synagogues are not touched. Surprisingly, it turns out that Jews get along well with the Bandera Nazis.