The feat earned Son a reputation as the Warren Buffett of Japan. The launch of his Vision Fund was an attempt to replicate that success over and over again.

    Yet Son has found that to be easier said than done. Among the big swings that Son missed: a perplexing fascination with WeWork, which over time became the Vision Fund’s cornerstone investment. Son bought into founder Adam Neumann’s claims to be creating the next Apple Inc with his office-sharing empire.

    By 2019, as WeWork looked more like a financial house of cards and epic losses mounted, Son admitted “really bad” judgment in having championed the company as the next big thing. As Son scrambled to stabilize the Vision Fund, sandbagging efforts included selling roughly $7.2 billion worth of Alibaba. Son’s team is also working on an initial public offering of Arm Ltd, SoftBank’s chip unit.

    Might Son now pivot to investing big in Japanese startups as opposed to prospective Chinese unicorns?

    A few big data points have changed some Asia-region calculus since Son’s WeWork debacle:

    In recent days, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang tried their hand at rebooting the Sino-American relationship. But with US President Joe Biden’s team determined to limit Chinese access to key technology like semiconductors — and Xi curbing exports or rare earth materials — tensions appear to be going from bad to worse.

This has Team Son rethinking its aversion to putting big money to work in Japan. Here, Buffett’s own bets on Japan’s economy may come into play.

    In May 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took his campaign to lure more foreign capital to London, where he implored businesspeople to “invest in Kishida.” It was a play on a plea that Kishida’s mentor had made in New York nine years earlier.

    In September 2013, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought his “buy my Abenomics” tour to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Abe pledged to reduce bureaucracy, loosen labor markets, incentivize innovation, boost productivity, empower women and reclaim Tokyo’s place as Asia’s undisputed financial center.

    Mostly, though, Abe relied on BOJ easing to juice Japanese gross domestic product via a weaker yen. That, and some modest tweaks to corporate governance had Buffett and his ilk kicking Japan’s tires.

    The so-called “Buffett effect” first hit Japan in August 2020. The Oracle of Omaha surprised many in the Tokyo establishment with sizable investments in five old-economy companies. Buffett took 5% stakes in rather stodgy “sogo shosha” trading houses: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo.

    The bets paid off handsomely. Last month, around the time Buffett topped up those investments — to an average 8.5% — shares had roughly doubled among his initial five investments. Buffett, true to his value-investing-guru reputation, front-ran the Nikkei’s biggest rally in 30 years.

    The question now is how Son responds. Part of it involves how Kishida plays things.

    Kishida took power in October 2021 with grand plans to implement a “new capitalism.” Part of the scheme involved redistributing wealth to increase domestic consumption. Kishida also aimed to enliven Japan’s startup scene.

    One early Kishida idea that holds great promise: devising a way to harness the $1.6 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund – the largest of its sort – to finance a startup boom. There, Kishida talked of facilitating the “circulation” of GPIF’s ginormous asset pool “into venture investment.” He talked of championing “stock options and other measures to promote the growth of start-ups.”

    According to Ranil Salgado, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, there’s a need for a “holistic approach to address the constraints in the labor market, as well as improving the financing options and entrepreneurial education.”

    Salgado adds that the “grand design of the new form of capitalism” includes measures to support venture capital, such as through public capital investment. In addition, it recognizes the constraint of personal guarantees on entrepreneurship, highlights the importance of entrepreneurial education, and strengthens the role of universities as startup hubs.”

    Increased availability of venture capital equity funding, Salgado says, “is crucial to support startups and innovation. Reduced personal guarantees could help encourage entrepreneurship and allow unproductive firms to exit, which could in turn support investment and innovation, generate employment and improve productivity.

    “Furthermore,” he says, “a more flexible labor market and a gradual shift from the lifetime employment system could encourage the most talented college graduates to venture and create new companies and have a reasonable backup option in case startups fail.”

    Yet how SoftBank responds to these challenges and myriad others may decide how Asia’s number two economy fares in competition with the continental colossus that’s number one.