As much of the world endures a summer of record-breaking temperatures, Germany is stuck debating a very different kind of heat: the future of the radiator. A controversial law championed by the government would ban almost all new oil and gas heating systems starting next year. Homes and businesses would have to purchase appliances that meet strict environmental standards, such as heat pumps.

    The Building Energy Act, known colloquially as just the “heating law,” has opened yet another rift in the tenuous three-party governing coalition led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. While Scholz has thrown his support behind the measure, some of his key governing partners stonewalled its initial passage. Meanwhile, the conservative opposition and far right have taken advantage of the discord to boost their poll numbers.

    All of this means that a reform rife with scientific jargon and technicalities has now become the latest lighting rod in Germany’s ongoing culture war. Exalted by environmentalists but despised by most other voters, the heating law demonstrates how the political feasibility of serious climate action can become bounded by surges in populist discontent. A reform that experts see as central to achieving Germany’s climate goals could also catapult the far right into power.

    “One reason this policy is so controversial is that it’s part of this bigger switch, where climate policy is moving from distant power plants to people’s homes,” said Noah Gordon, the acting co-director of the Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It doesn’t make such a difference to your daily life … where the electricity from the wall socket is coming from. But now we’re talking about people going into buildings to improve the insulation and rip out boilers. You get into all these very local politics.”

    The law aims to phase out oil and gas heating systems in buildings throughout Germany. It is the brainchild of Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Greens who also serves as minister for economics and climate action. If Habeck’s legislation is passed, new heating systems in the country would be required to rely on at least 65 percent green energy sources starting Jan. 1, 2024, and municipalities would have to devise environmentally friendly heating master plans by 2028 at the latest. The law is modeled on existing policies that are commonplace in many Scandinavian countries.

    While Germany has dramatically reduced its emissions from the electricity sector over the past decade, it has made little progress in the building sector, which continues to account for about 40 percent of the country’s carbon output, according to the German Energy Agency. The heating law aims to close this gap to keep Berlin on track to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.

    But so far, the still-pending reform has done little besides put the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on track for major electoral gains. Since March, the party’s poll numbers have risen steadily, reaching a high of 22 percent on Aug. 31. The AfD has now overtaken each of the three parties that make up Scholz’s motley coalition in national surveys—and holds a steady lead in at least one state that is due to hold elections next year.

    Analysts and pollsters see the politicking around the heating law as one of the main drivers of this trend. For Andrea Römmele, the dean of executive education at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, the proposed measure is just the latest evidence of the federal government’s dysfunction—proving that Scholz’s coalition “does not support one another.”

    Two years ago, when Scholz cobbled together a government with the support of his own Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP)—the first coalition of its kind on a national level—the three groups agreed to the general contours of the heating law. But when Habeck introduced his first draft to the cabinet this spring, it became instant political dynamite.

    The Greens lined up enthusiastically behind Habeck. The SPD was split, with Scholz endorsing the proposal while others in his party questioned its potential impact on consumers. And the FDP loudly dissented, calling the proposal too costly and preferring to let the market dictate technological innovation. The Greens and the FDP are fundamentally divided on the state’s role in confronting almost every major issue Germany faces today, and their constant bickering has stymied many of the coalition’s attempts to legislate. Nowhere is this more evident—and existential—than in climate policy.

    “If we really want to tackle climate change, the state has to interfere more in what had been private issues because we have to change our behavior,” Römmele said.