by David Scott Mathieson 

    This includes the significant “bottom-up” federalism of Kayah (Karenni) State as evidenced by the recent formation of the Karenni Interim Executive Council (K-IEC). Importantly, the Kayah resistance have fire-walled the K-IEC from military operations to maintain a clear separation of powers and make governance an equal priority.

    The same is true for the Sagaing Forum of various revolutionary groupings outside of NUG control, or the Arakan Army (AA) and its local administration, which now operates in large parts of Arakan state.

    This brings into question the credibility of recent research from the International Growth Center (ICG), which recently staged an online survey of 1,113 respondents in six ethnic languages on attitudes of ethnic people toward the NUG. It found 69% said they trusted the NUG and 79% “said the NUG would be effective in providing social services to their ethnic group’s areas.” The KPSN findings cast serious doubt on this rosy survey.

    Recent machinations in Naypyidaw, with an internal SAC purge that has seen ministers sacked and cabinets reconstituted, were replete with tantalizing predictions of Min Aung Hlaing’s ouster and the coup regime’s collapse. This should have evinced a serious reflection among all revolutionary forces over what to do if the regime falls and the military surrenders. It’s an unlikely scenario, to be sure, but it’s not an impossible one.

    That Karen revolutionary forces would be capable of administrating their areas in the event of regime collapse is abundantly evident from the KPSN report. Similar administrative capacity could also be found in Karenni, Arakan and large parts of Kachin states.

    But would the NUG be capable of effectively administering any territory or population outside of a Zoom call? Any capable administration would be the result of local mobilization, not NUG instructions delivered from multiple time zones. Perhaps imminent victory isn’t such a good idea after all?

    The Karen tortoise provides more apt lessons for the revolution than the NUG’s hare.

    David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, human rights and humanitarian issues on Myanmar.