by Stephen Bryen 

    The US has bases in Jordan, Iraq and Syria that would be effective if the US needs to intervene against Hezbollah in Lebanon. News reports allegedly from reliable sources say the US convinced Israel not to attack Hezbollah after it launched some attacks on Israel, allegedly telling Israel that the US would defend Israel against Hezbollah.

    The A-10 is a formidable ground attack aircraft that the US Air Force is sending to the bone-yard on the grounds that it isn’t useful anymore. Ironically, it is the perfect plane if the job is to clean out Hezbollah missile bases.

    One significant problem is that Russia and the US are at loggerheads over Ukraine, and the US is not talking to Russia seriously about the Ukraine issue. The lack of engagement between both nuclear powers increases the difficulty of both big powers working to calm the Middle East situation before the war spreads.

    This is unfortunate especially for Russia, since Syria, where the Russians have naval and air bases, will be a battleground if the war spreads. Already the Israelis have twice bombed the airport runways in Damascus and Aleppo to keep Iranian missiles from Hezbollah getting into Syria. Israel believes Iran is trying to supply long-range precision missiles to be aimed at Israel’s defense installations and key government offices.

    Israel has made clear its intention to destroy Hamas in Gaza. It has yet to launch a ground operation in support of that goal, possibly because Israel first wants to try and save as many hostages as it can. (The number of hostages still alive controlled by Hamas is uncertain.)

    The US is backing Israel’s operation to liquidate Hamas’s control over Gaza. How long the US will support Israel’s operation isn’t certain, although the US priority is for the release of at least 40 US citizens captured in Gaza. Iran says that if Israel stops bombing Gaza then the hostages will be released, but Hamas has not backed Iran’s claim.

    Unlike 1973, there is no possibility of negotiations with Hamas by the big powers. Others, for example, Egypt, have tried to work out humanitarian corridors for Gazan non-combatants, although how to differentiate combatants from non-combatants is a problem.

    The Iranians seem to want to reduce their profile since ginning up a war could give Israel the excuse it needs to wipe out Iran’s nuclear facilities and its long-range missile sites. In Lebanon, there is local pressure against Hezbollah going to war since the end result would be the final collapse of an already tottering Lebanese state.

    It is hard to predict if the war will spread or not. Russia can calm down the Iranians if it chooses to do so. The US can keep Israel focused on the Gaza problem, as it may already have done regarding Hezbollah. It’s a wait-and-see situation.

    Stephen Bryen, who served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense
for policy, currently is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.