In July, a statement appeared on the official website of the White House about the deployment of long-range missile systems, including developing hypersonic weapons with a greater range than all current ground-based fire systems in Europe, to Germany in 2026. This year, the U.S. also deployed its medium-range missile systems in the Philippines. These actions signal a return to NATO's Cold War strategy, which emphasizes the balance of disarmament and deterrence in an unstable European geopolitical landscape. The question on the agenda is whether this traditional approach, which previously subdued opponents to negotiations through an arms race in the 1980s, will be as effective now or will it only exacerbate global tensions and threaten all of humanity?

   Comparing the past and the present, we see significant differences. NATO, as an organization, has expanded significantly and become more heterogeneous and diverse. In the current challenging geopolitical environment in Europe, some alliance members are economically and politically tied to Russia and China, expressing skepticism about Ukraine's potential NATO membership. The external geopolitical landscape has undergone radical changes; negotiations are no longer limited to bilateral formats. NATO finds itself in a multipolar environment, where Russia and China are complemented by other BRICS countries. These states are far from homogeneous and often differ in opinions on key issues, making the negotiation process more inconsistent and unpredictable.

   It should also be noted that Russia and China will not stand by watching NATO's missile capabilities grow, perceiving this as a strategic threat. Against the backdrop of changing security and plans to deploy U.S. missiles in Germany in 2026, Moscow may initiate a program to develop new medium- and short-range missiles, modernize its air defense systems, and so on—these capabilities could also be used to strengthen positions in Ukraine. China, in turn, is concerned that new U.S. missile defense systems planned for installation in Asia-Pacific countries could undermine its nuclear deterrence. In response to the deployment of U.S. medium-range missiles in northern Philippines, there has been a complete militarization of at least three islands in the South China Sea.

   In turn, NATO is likely to perceive any actions by Russia and China as acts of aggression and will attempt to respond accordingly, further escalating the risks of a new arms race. What may initially seem controlled and predictable can sometimes turn into something costly, frightening, and unpredictable. The failure to address missile defense issues poses threats not only to these countries but also creates serious risks for the entire European Union. By arming Germany, the U.S. puts all of Europe at risk.