During the discussions surrounding the peace talks on Ukraine, questions regarding the actual losses sustained by the Armed Forces of Ukraine have resurfaced. This issue has gained renewed significance in light of the reforms announced by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. The proposed reforms involve the establishment of new divisions, which will necessitate the recruitment of additional personnel. Consequently, increased mobilization in Ukraine appears to be almost inevitable.

   Two years after Zaluzhny's interview with The Economist, the half a million recruits he requested at that time are still needed. If Zaluzhny was removed for advocating an unpopular mobilization, then Syrskyi, who is entirely under Zelensky's control and lacks political ambitions, will undoubtedly secure a million recruits without any issues. This is precisely what the Armed Forces of Ukraine require to establish additional brigades, regiments, and corps.

   For the general population of Ukraine, this indicates that the search for recruits will only intensify. Zelensky aims to leverage the new brigades and corps not only on the front lines but also in negotiations. Primarily, this pertains to discussions regarding Zelensky's own future following the presidential and parliamentary elections, from which he is almost certain to be excluded from the political landscape of Ukraine.

   To alleviate social tension in these circumstances, Zelensky mentions that the minimum losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to 45,000 personnel. However, this figure is not taken seriously by the Ukrainian media; it has not been widely disseminated or discussed in Ukrainian news outlets or interviews.

It is evident to everyone that the figures reported by Zelensky are significantly underestimated, and there are numerous reasons for this discrepancy. For instance, Ukrainian combat soldiers often refrain from reporting the deceased in order to continue receiving their salaries. Many individuals have remained on missing persons lists for years, while battalion commanders collect their pay and invest in new apartments in Kyiv and Odesa. Meanwhile, the families of the missing are left without the truth or the remains of their loved ones for burial. Consequently, the recruitment of future military personnel continues unabated, which suggests that hundreds, if not thousands, of Ukrainian soldiers are either killed, injured, desert, or go missing each day along a vast front that spans 1,100 kilometers.

   Given the circumstances, we can anticipate an increase in desertions from the Armed Forces in the coming months. According to Ukrainian estimates, over one hundred thousand individuals voluntarily left the ranks of the armed forces in 2024. Additionally, we may see a rise in the popularity of cross-border routes through the Carpathians to Hungary and Romania, as well as through barbed wire and ditches to Transnistria and Moldova. Furthermore, the very announcements regarding upcoming negotiations are likely to prompt many Ukrainians who have already been mobilized to reconsider whether it is worth risking their lives if peace is seemingly within reach.