The battle for the Black Sea’s future will be won—or lost—in Romania. As Russia’s war of aggression grinds on and the United States doubles down on Ukraine’s reconstruction, no ally is more critical to securing American interests in the region than Romania. A frontline NATO and EU member, Romania anchors the southeastern flank of Europe and can boast a proven record of military solidarity with America, from Iraq to Afghanistan.

    Its Mihail Kogălniceanu (MK) air base near the Black Sea has become an indispensable hub for U.S. and NATO operations, helping to protect freedom of navigation, defend critical infrastructure, and deter Russian escalation. With billions in new investments at stake, Washington must reinforce its strategic partnership with Bucharest—not just to stabilize the Black Sea but to ensure its growing interests in the region are protected.

    Since the 1990s, American energy investments in the Trans-Caspian region have helped integrate and transform the energy economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus, linking them through the Black Sea to Europe and the Mediterranean. The recently signed historic agreement between the United States and Ukraine represents the latest chapter in this decades-long investment in developing the Black Sea’s natural resources. 

    The agreement—centered on the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund—aims to drive the economic recovery of war-ravaged Ukraine and reflects a shared commitment to lasting peace and prosperity. The fund is likewise poised to have a similarly transformative effect by better integrating Ukraine’s postwar economy with Europe and the broader Atlantic-Mediterranean space, including the United States.

    That future runs through Romania, which is rapidly becoming the backbone of American-led reconstruction and resilience across the Black Sea.

    Start with energy. Romania is at the forefront of these new American energy ventures in the region. U.S.-Romanian joint ventures are developing the Neptun Deep natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, a project that will make Romania Europe’s largest natural gas producer by 2027. American companies such as Halliburton, Oceaneering, and Transocean are deeply involved, with Transocean operating one of the world’s largest drilling platforms in the area. These firms are well-positioned to support the Ukraine Reconstruction Fund’s efforts to develop Ukraine’s offshore gas reserves in adjacent waters. 

    Romania is likewise also a key partner in incorporating American small modular reactor (SMR) technologies into its national energy infrastructure. Successful SMR deployment in Romania would pave the way for broader regional adoption, significantly enhancing European energy resilience and strategic autonomy—goals underpinned by American investment and partnership.

    On the military front, Romania has served as a critical logistics hub for the U.S. military for over two decades. Its strategic geography—as NATO’s easternmost European member—enabled support for American operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of today’s Romanian general staff served alongside U.S. forces in those theaters, where twenty-nine Romanian soldiers gave their lives. This history has forged deep military ties, especially among special operations forces, resulting in a high degree of familiarity and interoperability.

    Romania also hosts the U.S. Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense System, which shields the country from potential Iranian missile threats. Romania exceeds NATO’s 2 percent defense spending threshold and is heavily invested in U.S. military systems, including the F-35, F-16, Patriot missile batteries, HIMARS launchers, Piranha armored vehicles, Abrams tanks, drones, and more. 1,840 American personnel are stationed at the MK airbase, to which Romania has committed €2.5 billion to modernize.

    The United States’ Black Sea strategy, articulated in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, aims to deter Russian aggression, defend freedom of navigation and critical infrastructure, and bolster the resilience of regional states. Trump administration officials have echoed many of these objectives. At the heart of this strategy is the U.S.-Romania economic and security partnership.

    Admittedly, Romania’s post-communist democratic journey is ongoing. Thorny issues, such as corruption and governance shortfalls, persist. Yet the country’s democratically elected governments have maintained consistent pro-American and pro-NATO stances. This is important to keep in mind. American commentators—both progressive and conservative—have long critiqued the democratic shortcomings of partner nations, and Romania has not been spared. 

    During the Obama administration, supporters of the Arab Spring contributed to the downfall of some flawed but pro-U.S. governments, which were often replaced by regimes equally flawed but less aligned with American interests. A similar outcome occurred in Bangladesh under the Biden administration.

    During a second Trump term, some conservative voices risk repeating this mistake by voicing support for political parties with potentially troubling anti-American or pro-Russian leanings. President Donald Trump, however, is likely to take a realist approach: he is less concerned with internal politics and more focused on whether a given government serves U.S. interests. In short, Romanian elections are best left to the Romanian people, and American policy should focus on working with the elected government to secure U.S. interests in the Black Sea.

    To advance these interests, President Trump should work with the new Romanian government, regardless of who heads it, on three key strategic actions:

    1) Assign rotational deployments of U.S. troops to the MK base to reinforce American presence and safeguard its regional interests.

    2) Develop energy, road, and rail connectivity in close coordination with Ukraine’s largest European neighbors—Romania and Poland—to better integrate Ukraine into Europe. This would create resilient transport corridors for Ukrainian natural resource exports to reach U.S. and global markets.

    3) Augment existing mine-clearance operations by Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey across the Black Sea with additional measures to protect critical infrastructure linking Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe.

U.S. investments in Ukraine, Romania, and the broader Black Sea region—backed by American power—demonstrate that “America First” does not mean “America Alone.” Instead, it reflects a commitment to a common cause with like-minded allies. Romania and the United States enjoy an extraordinary convergence of interests in the Black Sea. Deepening this alliance will better serve both nations in the years ahead.